Cox Automotive has revised its 2026 U.S. new-car sales forecast upward to 16.1 million, defying expectations that high gas prices, near-record vehicle costs, and raised interest rates would dampen demand. The update reflects a shift in buyer demographics, with wealthier consumers driving a larger share of the market.
Buyers earning over $150,000 annually now account for 43% of new-car sales in 2026, up from 29% in 2020, according to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. Meanwhile, those earning under $100,000 make up 36% of sales this year, down from 50% six years ago. The shift suggests that higher-income buyers are less sensitive to economic pressures.
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Despite these positive signs, the company remains cautious. The revised forecast still projects a 1.2% decline from 2025’s 16.3 million sales, a much smaller drop than the prior estimate of 2.9%. Chesbrough noted that while the economy shows strength, low unemployment, job growth, and a strong stock market, consumer-spending risks could emerge if recession fears intensify.
Consumer spending drives 70% of U.S. economic activity, meaning even affluent buyers could eventually cut back. The updated forecast was presented at a September webinar with the American International Automobile Dealers Association, replacing an earlier projection of 15.8 million set in late 2025.
